OK folks, here we go. Tomorrow is Election Day, which means that this insane presidential cycle is finally winding down, and that we’ll probably know in a day or two who the next president will be. Of course, the process could end up dragging on, and things could grow even more insane in the aftermath, but we’ll jump off those bridges when we get there. For now, the Toteboard will lay out what we can expect and what we have to watch for tomorrow and beyond.
The State of the Race
Unless you have successfully (and wisely) Rip Van Winkled yourself for the past four months, you no doubt know that Harris and Trump are running neck and neck, with the outcome dependent on seven purple-ish states, all of which really could go either way. The findings of pollsters and meta-pollsters (i.e., the outfits that analyze and number-crunch the polls collectively) have been remarkably static during the campaign, consistently showing all seven states as true toss-ups, with no more than a percentage point or two separating the candidates. While it is true that many published polls have probably been tainted by varying degrees of behind-the-scenes monkey business, most of these races were very tight in 2016 and 2020, and it makes sense that the same patterns would unfold this time around, with the same or similar candidates and an ossified electorate. As of this evening, The Silver Bulletin showed Harris’s chance of winning at 50%, Race to the White House had her at 50%, and Split Ticket had her at 53%. You can’t get a whole lot closer than that. It goes to show, you don’t ever know.
The numbers, which are identical to what they were the minute Biden dropped out of the race four months ago, show Harris with a solid-ish base of 226 electoral votes, with a mad scramble underway for (in alphabetical order) Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). Of course, the $64,000 question is how these will all shake out. The Toteboard identifies three possible scenarios:
Scenario #1: All for One, One for All. As Nate Silver and others have been repeating a lot lately, an unpredictable election doesn’t necessarily portend a close election. Even a small systematic polling error in one direction or the other can propel all or most of the Big Seven into the same column. According to Silver’s simulations, there’s a better than 50% chance that one candidate wins six or seven of these states (there’s a one in three chance that one candidate wins all seven). And so, if one northern and one southern state both get called relatively early for the same candidate, that’s a strong indicator that she or he will ultimately carry the rest or most of the remaining states. Harris really could win 319 EV’s. Or she could stall out at 226.
Scenario #2: Old Faithful. It may be as simple as the states all replicating their historical voting patterns, i.e., the indigo-ish purples (MI, NV, PA, WI) all going for Harris, and the burgundy-ish purples (AZ, GA, NC) all going for Trump. Keen mathematicians will note that if this scenario materializes, Harris will poke over the finish line with 276 EV’s, which might suggest that she holds a slight theoretical (or psychological?) advantage, i.e., she can win just by holding on to her Blue Firewall, while Trump can only win if he manages to poach one of her biggies (which sounds suspiciously like something he tries to do with most women he meets). Silver’s simulations identify this exact outcome as a fairly marginal possibility – i.e., 3.5% with Nevada, 2.8% without it – but this does line up exactly with Larry Sabato’s final predictions. Is Larry really shooting here for a superfecta? Or is he playing it safe by checking the boxes that guarantee he will do no worse than missing by three or four states, while other analysts could conceivably miss by six or seven?
Scenario #3: Mix and Match. For all we know, all seven states really are up for grabs, and minor shifts in demographic patterns or turnout could turn things ever so slightly out of kilter with recent precedent. As a result , the states may not correlate with one another quite the same ways they did in 2016 or 2020. For example, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Harris could lose Pennsylvania, but still walk away with Nevada and either Georgia or North Carolina. This is the scenario that would be the most crazy-making.
The Race is On, and the Race is on . . . Television
It’s safe to assume that overall, tomorrow’s process of counting votes and projecting state winners will be neither efficient nor consistent. More key states than not have either failed to fix or intentionally exacerbated byzantine rules that slow down the compilation process. What’s more, the demographics of early and absentee voters have changed considerably since the Covid election, so the pundits do not have as much advance notice about whether or where there will be red or blue mirages. As a result, it may be more challenging for those making projections to extrapolate correctly from returns, exit polls, early voting data, and so forth. We may . . . . shudder . . . have to wait until the votes are counted.
That said, in the interests of both accuracy and mental health, here are the Toteboard’s recommendations for following the returns:
Tidbit #1: As always, do not pay attention to the running electoral vote tallies the networks run. These numbers are, essentially, meaningless. It truly doesn’t matter if they call Kentucky for Trump or Vermont for Harris. Our starting number is 226, and we add votes if and when Harris notches one of the Big Seven, or lands an upset in another state (like, say, Iowa). Theoretically, we would also deduct votes if she happens to lose another state (like New Hampshire) in an upset, but if we get to that point, the election is already long gone.
Tidbit #2: Do not sit glued to any of the major television networks; most of what you see there is blather, spin, redundancy, and more redundancy. In fact, don’t watch the fucking TV at all, except perhaps to get periodic updates on vote counts in specific states, to check in on some House and senate races, or to watch an episode or two of Astrid et Raphaëlle. If you really want to know which way the winds are blowing, poke your nose into the NYT live blog and/or the Silver Bulletin subscriber chat. For useful mathematical perspectives, the former will include Nate Cohn’s celebrated “Needle” (if the tech strike doesn’t scuttle it), and the latter will update probabilities after specific states are called (if Nate’s not too busy).
So, assuming you all heed the Toteboard’s advice and monitor the election results judiciously, what will we know, and when will we know it? Here goes:
7:00:
Swing State: Georgia. The stubbornly Constitutionalist secretary of state and chief operating officer in charge of elections both insist that the spirits can do it all in one night. Numbers will fluctuate considerably, depending on which counties report first – the big democratic enclaves around Atlanta tend to take their time – and it’s not clear exactly when we’ll see the numbers from early voting. This one could be called before the end of the evening, as long as it’s not so close that the provisional and mail-in ballots (which are expected to be relatively low volume) could tilt things the other way. Silver Bulletin (SB) and Race to the White House (RWH) both currently give Harris about a 40% chance, and project Trump’s margin of victory at about 1%.
7:30:
Swing State: North Carolina. This stubbornly burgundy state is also supposed to go relatively quickly, at least by modern standards. Hurricane Helene has put some kinks in the voting process, but the authorities appear to have adapted well. As is the case with Georgia, it’s not exactly clear when the abundant early votes will be counted. SB and RWH rate Harris to have a 35-39% chance, and project Trump’s margin at a little more than 1%.
Senate Race: Ohio. This is a must-hold seat in a red state. The numbers are still in toss-up range, with perhaps a slight tilt toward incumbent Sherrod Brown, though for his must-choose final rating, Larry Sabato pulled the lever for Brown’s opponent Bernie Moreno. Ohio is a relatively quick counter, with a possible blue mirage.
8:00:
Swing State: Pennsylvania. This key piece of the Blue Firewall is almost certainly the big kahuna in this cycle, i.e., whoever wins this is probably going to win it all. But don’t expect to hear the results in a timely fashion. Thanks to heavy use of mail-in ballots and arcane rules for counting them, we probably won’t really have a good fix on the state until Wednesday. And to make the nail-biting worse, both SB and RWH see this as almost a true tossup, with each candidate having about a 50% chance of winning with a minuscule margin. Hoo boy.
Possible Republican Upset: New Hampshire. It’s not really on anyone’s radar, but if Trump runs the field and there are signs of a reddish wave, this highly elastic state will be the first to go. New Hampshire is not historically a fast-counting state.
Senate Race: Florida. The democrats are not projected to score any upset senate victories, but if they have an unexpectedly good night, this could be the first of a couple surprises. It would be nice to see Debbie Mucarsel-Powell knock off Rick Scott. Florida is a quick-counter.
Senate Race: Maryland. And if it's the republicans who somehow pull off an upset, popular governor Larry Hogan could squeak by Angela Alsobrooks in this very blue state. Counting usually takes an extra day here.
Senate Race: Pennsylvania: Another purple/indigo must-hold, long-time incumbent Bob Casey seems to be clinging to a single-digit lead.
9:00:
Swing State: Arizona. More heavy mail-in ballots, more arcane rules, and more bizarre hurdles to timely processing, this is another one to discuss over breakfast the next day. If it’s competitive, things could get bogged down for close to two weeks. SB and RWH give Harris about a 30% chance, and project Trump by 2% or so. Under normal circumstances, this would qualify as a near toss-up, but given how close all the other states are, this almost qualifies as a landslide. Still, definitely in striking distance.
Swing State: Michigan: The second brick in the Blue Firewall, this seems to be the state showing the most comparatively favorable odds for Harris. State officials implemented some new reforms to speed up processing of votes, so it’s possible that they’ll join Georgia and North Carolina with totals by the end of the evening. If one candidate wins all three, well, that’s almost certainly a good predictor of where the rest of the contest is going. If these states split, the subsequent twenty-four hours will feel very long indeed. SB and RWH give her a 60-65% chance, projecting a lead of just over 1%.
Swing State: Wisconsin. The third brick in the Blue Firewall, this is not quite the must-win for Harris as Pennsylvania, but a loss here would force something less likely in the mix-and-match scenario. They start counting the ballots late here, but continue through the night, i.e., we’ll know this at breakfast, or if someone wakes up in the middle of the night to take a whiz. SB and RWH give Harris a 55-60% chance, and project a win of 1% or less.
Possible Democratic Upset: Iowa. Once a reliably blue state, this one reddened so suddenly eight years ago, so why shouldn’t it change back just as quickly? The highly regarded Des Moines Register poll stunned everyone by showing Harris with a lead, and if Ann Seltzer thinks it could happen then it must be logical. The first extra notch in her holster if Harris wins in a landslide. Another quick-counting state.
Senate Race: Arizona. Ruben Gallego looks relatively safe here in the open seat. Maybe he will help get rid of Kari Lake once and for all.
Senate Race: Michigan. A must-hold for an open seat in this purple/indigo state. The dem’s highly touted Elissa Slotkin is slightly favored, but is fighting backlash on some hot-button issues.
Senate Race: Nebraska. It’s hard to imagine the labor-rooted independent Dan Osborn actually beating the dull-as-dirt incumbent Deb Fischer in this crimson stronghold, but stranger things have happened. Osborn is making it closer than anyone expected. Like most Nebraskans, officials here do things carefully and meticulously, i.e., we won’t see the results early.
Senate Race: Texas. Colin Allred is giving it all he’s got against the loathsome Ted Cruz, and he does seem to be outperforming Harris, but there may just be too many republican votes here. This and Florida are about equal on the possible upset list. Texas is another quick counter.
Senate Race: Wisconsin. A must-hold purple-indigo for Tammy Baldwin, who is also currently outperforming Harris in the polls. Maybe she has some reverse coattails to swing things safely Harris’s way.
10:00:
Swing State: Nevada. Lots of mail-in ballots, lots of flexibility on getting them in and curing problematic or provisional ballots, it’s a good thing that this state probably won’t end up being all that consequential. SB and RWH have this one as another pure toss-up.
Senate Race: Montana. It figures that the race that may ultimately decide the fate of the senate is one of the last ones to close and may be the last one to be tabulated, though Montana officials say they will count through the night and get it right. RWH gives democratic incumbent Jon Tester about a one in three shot. Isn’t that what SB said Trump’s shot was eight years ago?
Senate Race: Nevada. Republicans initially had high hopes for this one, but it looks like incumbent Jacky Rosen is fairly safe.
Parting Words
When asked if he was nervous about tomorrow, a Toteboard friend replied, “I’ve been nervous for months.” Amen, brother. So friends, don’t forget to breathe, find a sunny spot to sit sometime in the afternoon, listen to some of your favorite songs, do something nice for someone you love. And if we’re lucky, we can all watch that asteroid sail harmlessly out of our solar system in the coming days.
Comments