Now that we have moved into the post-conventions, post-debates, post-candidate-switches, post-assassination-attempts phase of the presidential election – that opening phrase is certainly a Toteboard first – the race has apparently settled into what is more or less a statistical dead-heat. Yes, that means we are in for six crazy-making weeks of non-stop campaigning and poll-watching. And that also means six crazy-making weeks of misinformation, scare tactics, voter intimidation, and whatever else the republican sleaze-merchants manage to dredge out of their morally challenged cesspool, not to mention all the crap that’s going to come down the pike after the election. If you’re not anxious, you’re not paying attention.
Of course, what makes this so especially stressful is that everything is so goddamn tight. When the no-drama Nate Silver says that he’s “never (emphasis added) seen such a close election” a month and a half out, then you know we’re talking about an evenly, and frequently bitterly, divided country. And that division maps almost exactly onto Congress as well, where both chambers are currently led by razor-thin majorities, and where the November results could go either way. Because of this, it’s really not just a question of getting another democrat into the White House, i.e., Biden’s election four years didn’t magically remake US policy or SCOTUS in accord with some progressive blueprint. Rather, we are pretty much stuck in a grinding, enervating cycle of push-and-pull, of the good guys simultaneously having to govern and to obstruct. On the one hand, the democratic party can attempt to protect abortion rights, to make education and healthcare more accessible, and to address global warming and environmental degradation. On the other hand, it must also figure ways to kneecap the MAGA-infused right wing from further politicizing the courts, weaponizing the Justice Department and law enforcement, and allowing overseas strongmen to run roughshod over their own people and commit acts of aggression against their neighbors. It really does seem like we’re in for an endless, multi-front domestic war.
And that’s why what happens with the Senate is almost as important as what happens with the presidency. Well, perhaps that’s a bit of an overstatement, but control of the Senate is a very, very big deal. That’s where it will ultimately be determined, among other things, whether there are more government shutdowns, whether the Affordable Care Act gets dismantled, and whether more reactionary stooges end up on the Supreme Court. (And just for old times sake, fuck you very much Susan Collins.)
Unfortunately, as spelled out in the Toteboard preview ten months ago, the democrats pretty much have to draw to an inside straight in order to maintain control. They currently hold a 51-49 advantage, but one of those seats is already as good as gone. What’s more, there are really no vulnerable republican incumbents for democrats to try to flip. That means, first of all, that Harris has to win the White House. No Harris, no Senate, plain and simple, and right now her chances are not a whole lot better than a coin toss (those looking for good news can find some comfort that the numerically driven Race to the WH currently has her almost a 3-2 favorite). And second, the democrats then have to run the table on all of their incumbents outside of West Virginia. That’s not impossible, as most of the contestable ones are in purple or indigo-ish states, but those include five of the seven states that promise to have the closest presidential numbers. What’s more, a couple are in red states, and at least one of those incumbents has barely held on during his previous reelections. If the trend against ticket-splitting continues, that certainly will not bode well. As more polling comes in over the coming weeks, we may get a better sense whether the dems are pulling for an inside straight, or simply an open-ended one.
And so, here is a state-by-state summary of where things stand, starting with the most endangered seats, and ending with a few wild-cards:
The Red State Menace:
Montana. This is the one that may decide it all, i.e., if you’re thinking of shelling out a few extra bucks for one candidate, this is the one that could give you the most bang for the buck (or prove to be the most wasted investment). As discussed thoroughly in a recent post from Larry Sabato, demographic shifts and economic woes have put a big dent in Montana’s once-thriving (albeit minority) democratic organizations, and the time may have finally come when the state no longer has a place for a Jon Tester, whom the NYT memorably described as “truly your grandfather's Democrat—a pro-gun, anti-big-business prairie pragmatist whose life is defined by the treeless patch of hard Montana dirt that has been in the family since 1916.” Tester’s opponent, wealthy businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, has (like most republicans) said his requisite share of stupid things – most notably lying about an old bullet wound, and portraying local Native Americans as drunken patsies – but his MAGA loyalties and Project 2025 affinities have been enough to give him a consistent single-digit lead in the few polls conducted in this crimson state over the last month. Perhaps there’s a ray of hope that no top-flight pollster has yet taken the state’s pulse, but Tester clearly has his work cut out for him.
Ohio: The gruff “progressive populist” Sherrod Brown is in for the fight of his career, and his best hope is that while Ohio – home of culinary delicacies like dog à l’orange and cat au vin – gets Trumpier, it doesn’t necessarily get crazier. The republicans somewhat unexpectedly bypassed a pair of experienced, well-connected officeholders and instead nominated Bernie Mereno, a wealthy Trump-backed former car dealer running as a political outsider (there’s a lot of that going around in republican circles these days). Moreno too has shoved his foot in his own mouth – flouting environmental regulations, and calling women “a little crazy” for supporting abortion rights – but he is still running close to even or just slightly behind in this nail-biter. Doug, start calling all your friends and family!
Purple State Blues:
Michigan: Pundits believe that the contest to fill Debbie Stabenow’s seat could be the most flippable of the purple-indigos, as the disorganized and demoralized republican state party apparatus somehow managed to team with national strategists to recruit Mike Rogers, a former representative, veterans advocate, and media figure, to run against democratic front-bencher Elissa Slotkin. The good news is that Slotkin has maintained a thin but stubborn lead, and she clearly gives as good as she gets on the campaign trail. But watch out for the pro-Israel hardliners and the pro-Palestinian fantasists both hammering the Jewish Slotkin for her moderate stance on the Gaza war, the sizable Muslim and Arab American population taking out their disappointment with the Biden administration on the whole democratic party, and a little bit of not-so-old-fashioned antisemitism creeping its ugly head yet again.
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin won fairly decisive victories twice in this purple-ish state, though both were admittedly during democratic years. After a bunch of no-names futzed around during the lead-up to the primary, banker-millionaire-asshole Eric Hovde drew Trump’s endorsement and then waltzed to the nomination. Both candidates believe they have abortion, immigration, and the economy on their side, and the results may ultimately look very similar to those of the presidential contest. For now, Baldwin is in the lead, but Hovde is in striking distance. The biggest cause for concern is that Wisconsin was the largest of all the important polling misses in 2016 and 2020, both times underestimating the republican vote. Let’s hope the pollsters have gotten their statistical shit together since then.
Pennsylvania: Three-term incumbent Bob Casey and his family have been a state institution for decades, so it will take some combination of Casey fatigue, fracking fanaticism (though Casey and his opponent have identical views), and a Trump win to turn the numbers against him. That’s a definite possibility, however, as the polls show Casey’s generic republican opponent Dave McCormick pulling to within single digits or (in a couple of recent polls) dead even. Still, all of the big-name analysts have PA's senate seat shaded blue, albeit some lighter than others. Definitely another one to watch.
Arizona: As Kyrsten Sinema contemplates her forthcoming move to the private sector – “that’s where the money comes from“ – she leaves behind an intact filibuster, a failed bipartisan immigration bill, and a whole lot of burned bridges between herself and her former party. Fortunately, the democrats rallied around solid multi-term congressman and USMC veteran Ruben Gallego to fill this open seat, while the republicans gave a considerably less enthusiastic nod to professional wingnut Kari Lake. Gallego has maintained a single-digit lead in numerous polls over the last month, but it will be interesting to see how coattails or reverse coattails play out in this newly purple state. Harris and Trump are thus far arm-wrestling to a draw; the best-case scenario is that Gallego manages to lift Harris up a bit, while the worst is that Trump manages to resuscitate Lake.
Nevada: Incumbent Jackie Rosen seems to be holding a 10-ish point lead over perennial candidate Sam Brown, whose campaign has yet to make much of a splash, so the main concern now seems to be whether the famously transient, elastic, and hard-to-poll Nevada electorate is holding back some surprises. This is another one that shows a presidential dead heat, perhaps leaning a bit toward Harris (the democrats have won this state consistently over the last several cycles by about 2%), so we’ll have to see if the two races start to synch with each other as we get closer to election day.
Blue State Purples?
Maryland: The race to succeed Ben Cardin in this dark blue state shouldn’t even be appearing in this post, but the popular old-style quasi-liberal republican governor Larry Hogan inexplicably decided to make life more difficult for the democrats by throwing his ample hat into the senate ring. The democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks has all the right cred – she’s a former state attorney and current hands-on county executive of Maryland’s second most populous county, she checks all the right boxes on progressive causes, and she’s a Black single mother to boot. But she shot herself in the foot with some bogus tax deductions, and is fielding complaints from allies that she hasn’t yet done enough to define herself in contrast to her better known opponent. She seems to have a safe lead for now, but she will be doing a couple of televised debates with Hogan, and those could be important for keeping that lead.
Red State News?
Texas: Wait, didn’t the Toteboard just say that “there are really no vulnerable republican incumbents for democrats to try to flip?” Well yes, but after the over-hyped Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6% of the insufferable Ted Cruz six years ago, some wishful folks in pundit-land started murmuring that maybe Texas was ready to go like Arizona and Georgia, i.e., that the increasing Hispanic and African-American populations just might combine with the expanding professional class in the southern and southwestern urban areas to form a viable democratic coalition. It still may be a bit too early for all these cosmic tumblers to fall into place, but the dems are giving it their very best shot with Colin Allred, a congressman and former civil rights lawyer and NFL linebacker (!). There haven’t been many polls – it’s expensive and time-consuming to work a huge, supposedly non-competitive state – but the few lower-quality outfits that have been there show Allred only a few points behind. For what it’s worth, Race to the WH gives Allred a 30% chance, which is actually better than he gives any of the republican challengers in the purple-indigos discussed above. Wouldn’t it be nice to drive Cruz out of the senate, and off our television sets?
Florida: Another democratic challenger whom R2WH also rates a higher chance than the republicans above is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, an Ecuadorian-born Renaissance woman who previously represented the Miami-Dade area in the House, and is trying to unseat one-termer and former governor Rick Scott. At first glance, this would seem like a no-go, especially after Mucarsel-Powell lost her House seat in an upset four years ago, but she is positioning herself well as a champion of reproductive freedom, economic fairness, and nuanced immigration policy. There’s also a chance the bilingual and telegenic Mucarsel-Powell will come off with the voters as a breath-of-fresh-air improvement on the desiccated and parochial Scott. This one would be nice too.
So, there you have it. As was the case during the last senate cycle, don’t be surprised if there are very few flips this time around. The most likely scenario for now is somewhere from one to three seats turning red. But an unexpected wave in either direction could take a lot of incumbents with it, with republicans having more to gain and less to lose. A very best case scenario for the democrats would be a net gain of one seat (and the Toteboard suggests you don’t start holding your breath on that), while the republican best case could be a gain of as many as nine seats, which is a truly terrifying thought. As such, this would a good time for the theists among you to start pulling out your prayers of intercession, and for the non-theists to start sending out all the psychic energy you can. In this painfully close election, every little bit might help. And it soitenly couldn’t hoit.
PS: And a loyal Toteboard reader offered the following reminder: "And for us non-theists, besides sending out psychic energy, we can also send out letters, postcards, texts and phone calls. You know the drill!" Thanks to BF for this.
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